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Fed policy action, RBI rate decision key driving factors for mkts: Analysts

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The US Fed policy action, RBI rate decision and foreign fund flows are some of the major factors that will guide the equity markets in the near-term, analysts said on Wednesday.


Besides these, September quarter earnings announcements would also pave the way for the markets, whose overall structure remains bullish, they added.


From its 52-week low of 50,921.22 quoted on June 17 this year, the Sensex has jumped 16.91 per cent till now. The Nifty has climbed 16.96 per cent from its 52-week low of 15,183.40 on June 17 this year.


So far in 2022, the BSE Sensex has climbed 2.20 per cent and the Nifty has advanced 2.33 per cent.


“We believe that the underlying market is bullish. Given India’s stance as a high-performing economy, there are many reasons for India to be an excellent performer as we advance,” said Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer, MarketsMojo.


He said the rupee has stabilized after hitting an all-time low level.


The rupee is currently hovering at 79.50 against the US dollar. It had touched an all-time low of 80.15 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday.


“We are of the opinion that irrespective of whether the market touches a record high in September, market sentiments will stay bullish by Diwali,” Damania said, adding that the BSE benchmark Sensex and the NSE Nifty have picked up since mid-June 2022.


At the moment, investors might be skeptical of the current market rally, Damania said, adding that “We maintain the Sensex could touch 65,000 by December 2022, and our short-term Nifty target is 19,000 by December 2022.”

Factors that could influence the direction of global markets include geopolitical issues, commodity prices, inflationary trends, interest rate trajectory followed by central banks and recessionary conditions, experts said.


According to Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, Indian markets could get impacted by the turn in global sentiments and as more investors turn risk averse ahead of the historically down month of September.


“However, the intensity and amount of fall in India will be limited as its economy may not be linked fully with the happenings in the US economy,” he noted.


From now till the end of the calendar year, Nifty could see an upside of 18,100 and downside of 15,850, Jasani added.


Reshma Banda, Head-Equity & Executive VP, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance said Indian macroeconomic fundamentals are better placed on a relative basis.


Inflation in India is elevated and is only marginally higher than the RBI threshold band, which compares favorably to other developed countries where inflation is hovering at multi-decade highs, Banda said.


According to official figures, India’s retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank’s comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month.


Some of the other factors that can impact market sentiments include normal monsoon, which augurs well for controlling food inflation levels in the country.


Further, foreign fund inflows have returned to India, thereby aiding a healthy rally in the equity markets, experts said.


After turning net buyers last month, foreign investors have become aggressive shoppers of Indian equities and pumped in Rs 49,250 crore so far in August on improvement in corporate earnings and macro fundamentals.


Sunil Nyati, Managing Director, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said, Indian equity benchmark indices are witnessing profit-booking after a stellar rally of about 17 per cent from June lows.


Historically, September remains a weak or sideways month for Nifty and Sensex but in October month or near Diwali, Nifty and Sensex can approach their fresh all-time highs, Nyati added.


On the global front, the market will have an eye on economic data and geopolitical situations while on the domestic front, earnings, festive season demand, and FIIs’ behavior will be the key factors.


The Fed’s September policy action is the one significant factor the market will consider until Diwali.


The US Federal Bank chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank will stick to a strategy of rate hikes to cool inflation.


Some experts believe the market is ready for aggressive rate hikes and most of this is already discounted whereas any relief on the inflation front may improve investor sentiments.

(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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US, China reach agreement in dispute over Chinese company audits

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The US and have reached a tentative agreement to allow US regulators to inspect the audits of Chinese companies whose stocks are traded on US exchanges. In a long-festering dispute, US regulators have threatened to boot a number of Chinese companies off the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq if didn’t permit inspections.


The deal announced Friday by market regulators in the US and is preliminary, and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said, The proof will be in the pudding.


While important, this framework is merely a step in the process, Gensler said in a prepared statement. This agreement will be meaningful only if (US regulators) actually can inspect and investigate completely audit firms in China. If (they) cannot, roughly 200 China-based issuers will face prohibitions on trading of their securities in the US if they continue to use those audit firms.


An agreement would mean that US investors will maintain access to shares of important Chinese companies while at the same time being protected by the integrity of company audits.


This is unequivocally positive news and a major step toward averting mass delisting of Chinese companies in the US,” analyst Tobin Marcus at Evercore ISI said in a note to clients. However, he said, A deal is only the first step toward avoiding delisting. What ultimately needs to happen is that (US) Inspectors need to show up and complete inspections…We expect that these inspections will take months.”

Even though preliminary, it is a rare instance of accord at a time when relations between the US and China are fraught as the two sides spar over trade, the war in Ukraine and human rights. The tension was ratcheted higher by a recent visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its territory.


The Chinese responded to the visit by Pelosi, second in line to the US presidency, with military drills around the island.


The US regulators had warned that without an agreement, some 200 companies including Alibaba Group, the world’s biggest e-commerce competitor, might be ejected from US exchanges or face trading restrictions. The Americans said that other governments have agreed to allow such audit reviews, which are required by US law, and that China and Hong Kong are the only holdouts.


Three of China’s biggest state-owned companies announced Aug 12 they would remove their shares from the New York Stock Exchange but gave no indication that the action was related to the audit dispute.


PetroChina Ltd, China Life Insurance Ltd and China Petroleum & Chemical Co cited the small volume of trading of their shares in the New York market and the expense of complying with regulations in a foreign market. The companies said their shares still would be traded in Hong Kong, which is Chinese territory but open to non-Chinese investors.


The dispute over audits of Chinese companies dates back nearly a decade. Scores of Chinese companies were suspended or kicked off US exchanges, most of them for failing to file timely financial reports. At least two dozen were hit with SEC fraud or accounting charges, but investigations stalled because the companies’ audit papers were in China beyond the SEC’s reach.


Under terms of the new agreement, US accounting inspectors in the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board would have independent discretion to select any Chinese company audit for inspection or investigation, and they would get direct access to interview all personnel of the audit firms whose work is being inspected. The inspectors could see complete audit work papers with no redactions.


In Beijing, the China Securities Regulatory Commission called the agreement an important step in resolving the issue of common concern of audit and regulatory cooperation. Investors and companies on both sides will benefit from keeping Chinese shares trading on US exchanges, the commission said.


The terms the commission outlined would give Chinese officials a role in any possible investigations. China won the right to conduct similar reviews of US audit firms where relevant, according to the Chinese regulators, allowing Beijing to portray the agreement as mutually positive rather than an instance of China giving in to American pressure. China has yet to express any need to carry out such reviews of its own.


Chinese regulators also would be allowed to participate in interviews with audit personnel.

(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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Rupee under pressure as FPIs rush to the exit door, pull out Rs 2 lakh crore since October

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The ongoing sell-off by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) has led to withdrawal of over Rs 2,00,000 crore from the domestic stock markets since October last year. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has added to the nervousness of FPIs, already bracing for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The FPI pull-out has hit the rupee, with its exchange rate against the dollar falling below the 76 level to 76.16 despite heavy RBI intervention.

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On March 4, FPIs pulled out Rs 7,631 crore from the stock markets, taking the total outflows to Rs 18,614 crore in the last three sessions of March as Russia intensified the attack on Ukraine and oil prices soared. This outflow has come after withdrawals of

Rs 45,720 crore in February and Rs 41,346 crore in January. With this, FPIs have pulled out

Rs 2,06,646 crore (excluding FPI investments in IPOs) since October 1, 2021.

If the situation in Ukraine worsens and FPI sales continue, the rupee will cross the 77 level against the dollar in the coming days, analysts said. While banks have been purchasing dollars to facilitate FPI pull-out, the RBI has been selling dollar from its forex kitty to salvage the rupee, said a banking source.

During the week ended February 25, India’s foreign currency assets declined by $ 2.228 billion. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict is hurting Indian rupee, bonds and equities via three channels: oil prices, US dollar Index and global equity prices,” said a Kotak Securities report.

Analysts said there could be a further temporary shock if things worsen more in Europe or, for that matter, a new front opens up in Asia. While the rupee is likely to remain under pressure, the RBI with its forex kitty of $631 billion will be able to prevent a big slide in the currency.

However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs), led by LIC, mutual funds and insurance companies, have been stepping up their purchases, absorbing most of the FPI sales. “There is a tug-of-war going on between FPIs and DIIs,” said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Countering the FPI strategy, DIIs have invested Rs 12,599 crore in March 1-4, adding to their total investments of Rs 1,42,872 crore since October 2021. DIIs invested a record amount of Rs 42,084 crore in February, their highest monthly investment since they put Rs 55,595 crore in March 2020 when Covid pandemic hit the country.

Despite a correction of around 13 per cent from the peak in Nifty, FPIs continue to sell since market sentiments have been impacted globally by the uncertainty triggered by the war and the surge in crude prices. This is likely to impact the IPO market and LIC’s plan for listing this fiscal and push up the current account deficit (CAD).

The Sensex has already fallen 5 per cent, or 2,899 points, to 54,333.81 since February 24 when the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. Global markets are spooked with the events happening in Europe, which are causing volatility. “FPIs have been sellers for almost 6 months now. Commodities are hitting highs across the board – oil, coal, metals and agri-commodities,” said Vineet Bagri, managing partner, TrustPlutus Wealth.

The FPI pull-out is dampening the sentiment in equity and forex markets. “Their impact on markets is visible, with increase in volatility and declining equity prices. However, the fact that this selling by foreign investors has been absorbed by domestic investors bodes well for the outlook of Indian markets,” Bagri said.

According to a Morgan Stanley report, supply constrained oil price rises are bad for India. Indeed, the recent 25 per cent jump in oil prices will expand the current account deficit by 75 bps and inflation by 100 bps on an annualised basis, it said.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said he will back a quarter point rate increase when the Fed meets March 15-16, putting to rest debate over starting a post-pandemic round of rate hikes with a larger than usual half-point increase.



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